In 4th title match with Alabama, Clemson pulls the upset

Episode IV of the Clemson vs. Alabama CFB Playoff rivalry will unfold on Monday night, and for the third time a championship is on the line.  The Tide is 2-1 in the three games played so far, and I think Clemson has a good shot at evening things up this year. I’m taking Clemson +5 or more and the over at 59 or fewer.  Two striking differences are on display in this year’s matchup, both on the Alabama side of the ball. Saban does not have his usual defense. I have my doubts that the Alabama secondary can keep up with Clemson’s talented receivers and mature play of freshman QB Trevor Lawrence.  The defense gave up some big plays last week to Kyler Murray, and I expect to see more of the same Monday night. In addition, the health of linebacker Christian Miller is in question, which will hurt the ‘Bama defense even further. Advantage Clemson.

Second is the Alabama offense.  For the first time in his coaching tenure at Alabama, Nick Saban has an all-world quarterback.  The offense is downright nasty. Tua Tagovialoa is without a doubt this year’s best quarterback, and yes, I have him rated better than Murray who won the Heisman.  To back him up is veteran Jalen Hurts, who led the Tide to a dramatic SEC championship win over Georgia earlier in the year. The Tide will have no trouble scoring points, and the absence of Clemson defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence only helps their case.  Watching the Tigers shut down Notre Dame last week, I don’t think Clemson misses him as much as most thought.

I like Clemson to score enough against the banged-up Alabama defense to pull ahead and make enough plays on offense to put them over the top. The best play here is Clemson +5. I would also take the over at fewer than 59.5 and sprinkle some on Clemson ML for the outright win.