Alan Truex: Boston has more muscle, but Houston knows how to win
When the Boston Red Sox beat world champion Houston with a ninth-inning walk-off Sunday night, they celebrated as if they’d won the series. Or The Series.
In fact, all they’d done was salvage the third game and prevent a humiliating sweep in their lovable, if decaying, shoe-horn of a ballpark. The Astros trudged off the field appearing almost nonchalant, though they’d played hard and fast in every inning of the series.
The visitors dominated the three-game series that could be a preview of the American League Championship Series. And let’s face it, the three best teams in baseball are in the Land of the Designated Hitter.
Which is not to say the National League is full of stiffs. I’ve seen plenty of World Series teams worse than today’s Chicago Cubs, Milwaukee Brewers and Los Angeles Dodgers. They are all brimming with prime and younger talent.
But the National Leaguers are not in the class of the Red Sox, Astros and perennial Yankees. The Cubs, the best of the NL, are seven games worse than Houston.
Boston has much the best record in the majors – 98-46 entering play Tuesday – but Boston, Houston and the Yankees are all on pace for 100+ wins. And the defending champs have depth and balance the others are lacking.
ESPN’s Alex Rodriguez is a liar and a cheater but he likes Jennifer Lopez and he also knows something about hitting baseballs. Here’s what he said about the Astros: “There’ so much diversity in the way the Astros can attack you. They can attack you with the long ball; they can double you down, and they can bunt.
“That’s what you need in October to beat great pitching.”
He earlier had pointed out that the Red Sox were not so good at advancing base runners. They go for the big inning every inning, even the eighth when the score is tied. In Sunday’s 8th at Fenway, Boston had runners on first and second base with nobody out. It seemed an obvious time for a sacrifice bunt to put the winning run on third.
That’s conventional baseball strategy but it is not the Red Sox way. This is a team that proudly proclaims, “We don’t bunt.”
So they stood by their principles and did not bunt in the eighth inning. But they also did not score, even with the bases loaded and one out. They are MLB’s best-hitting team with runners in scoring position — .299. But sometimes you don’t need a hit; a suicide bunt will do, or a sac-fly.
The Red Sox are not original in their disdain for the sacrifice bunt, which baseball mathematicians from the 1960s on have decried as a counterproductive tactic. But what the analysts miss is that, as A-Rod was suggesting, postseason pitching offers few opportunities for home runs.
So batters must find other ways to score. While the Astros have power – Alex Bregman a legit MVP – they can play small ball when they need to. They have twice as many sacrifice hits as Boston, and they lead the majors in fielding.
Houston has more versatility offensively than Boston and more pitching depth. The Astros have six relief pitchers with ERA under 3.00 who have made at least 15 appearances. The Red Sox have only three of that sort of lights-out distinction.
Whenever a veteran pitcher is injured, the Astros summon reinforcements from AAA-Fresno, and there’s no loss of effectiveness. They’ve recently been without their setup reliever, Chris Devensky, and one of their starting pitchers, Lance McCullers.
This predicament created an opportunity for two talented rookies, Framber Vadez and Josh James. They have combined for 28 strikeouts in 27 innings, a 3-0 record and 2.00 ERA.
The Astros still could use a more dynamic pitcher on the back end. Roberto Osuna and Hector Rondon are not as dependable as Boston’s Craig Kimbrel.
The Astros’ manager, A.J. Hinch, has suggested he may use James with his triple-digit heat as a starting pitcher and employ McCullers as a closer, a role he performed well in the last postseason.
The truth is that McCullers has proved beyond much doubt that his arm is not built for starting. He pitched 126 innings before exiting to the disabled list, where he is now. This is the most he’s thrown in any of his four seasons in The Show.
Shorter appearances could mean more appearances for a pitcher with a 96 mph fastball and a bewildering knuckle-curve that can reach 90.
So Hinch is constantly pondering new arrangements for his pitching staff, but they are not truly worries. He has what’s statistically the best starting rotation in the sport, led by Justin Verlander, who won his 15th Monday night in Detroit, where he rose to prominence.
As for the Houston bullpen, if it’s not quite a model of consistency, its metrics put it in the top two or three in the bigs.
The Red Sox did the right thing to celebrate their lone victory against the Astros. As gifted as they are, they may not have many such opportunities against a ballclub as versatile as Houston’s that knows how to win at every level and in every way.
