Correa is baseball’s best player, Astros cannot afford to let him go
Updated Wednesday, October 20, 2021
LLANO, Texas –Carlos Correa can be the greatest sports hero Houston has ever had. Yes, greater than Earl Campbell or Nolan Ryan or AJ Foyt or Hakeem Olajuwon. If you judge him by eye test or eyewitness testimonials or by the most complete and esoteric of analytics, the Astros’ shortstop is the world’s best baseball player.
The favorite stat of analytics mavens is Wins Above Replacement, a calculation of a player’s value, in wins per season, over the number of projected wins by the average big-league player who’d replace him. Correa’s WAR this season was the best in the sport: 7.2, just ahead of Marcus Semien at 7.1 and Juan Soto, 7.0.
Which means that if he takes the transfer portal in free agency, the Astros theoretically can expect 7 fewer victories next season: 88-74. That would have left them in third place in this year’s American League West and well out of the playoffs.
Not to suggest they’re going to be in this one for long. With staff ace Lance McCullers’ forearm injury putting him out of the postseason, their starters couldn’t last three innings in the first four games of the American League Championship Series. I knew the bullpen was dicey, but didn’t think the rotation was a roulette wheel.
The reason I bring up Correa is that close observers, including Correa, are sounding like his sixth postseason as an Astro is his final one. Last spring he rejected the team’s offer of $125 million for five years.
He’s 27 and doesn’t want to set up another relocation at 32. He’s looking for “a big, long contract,” and he said the Astros “made it clear they don’t believe in that.”
So what is Correa worth? Obviously, different amounts to different teams, but you’d move any other shortstop to let him play there. As he pointed out, with uncharacteristic self-promotion: “I led the league in defensive WAR.. . . So when you talk about shortstops that can do both things at an elite level, I think you should mention my name.”
He is very solid offensively, ranking 33rd in the league in batting average (.279) and home runs (26). He’s most cherished for raising his productivity in the postseason. In 69 postseason games he has 18 homers and a .300 BA.
He has that rare ability to elevate his teammates because his confidence is contagious and dramatic.
His home run broke a 7th-inning tie in Game 1 of the ALCS with Boston. Before circling the bases he stood at the plate, tapped his wrist, where a watch would be, and he yelled to his dugout: “It’s my time.”
Similar story in last year’s ALCS. As the 9th inning approached in a game with the Tampa Bay Rays, Correa said two words to manager Dusty Baker: “Walk-off.” And then he did.
For several years I covered the Astros’ two most recent Hall of Famers, the very deserving Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio. They have as much character as any ballplayers you’ll see, but they had none of the swagger of Correa.
Swagger, when it’s backed up, is a very powerful force in any team sport. It’s always gone over well in New York, and there’s no doubt the Yankees will be talking to Correa as soon as it’s legal to do so, if not earlier. Best guess is that Correa will want a 10-year deal at more than $300 million.
New York is attractive to him for reasons other than baseball. It would boost the fashion career of his wife Daniella, former Miss Texas. Correa was born in Puerto Rico. The Bronx, the borough where the Yankees play, is 21% Puerto Rican. He enjoys being a civic leader; he and Daniella personally visit children in cancer hospitals throughout Houston. He might feel that as a humanitarian he can do more in New York.
I want him to stay, but when I talk with people in the Astros organization, the blowback goes like this: “We’re not in a boat anywhere near the Yankees. Their media revenues are overwhelming. If the Yankees make it their highest priority to sign Correa, we can’t try to outbid them.”
Houston, you’re pushing Chicago to be the country’s third-largest city, but you sell yourself short. In the late 1980s, former owner of the Astros John McMullen commented on that condition. McMullen, who lived in New Jersey, said in an off-the-record chat which I’ll put on the record since he’s dead: “Houston is run by men with big belt buckles and small balls.” It wasn’t always that way. Houston was founded in June 1837 after its forerunners captured the ruler of Mexico. Houston broke the barrier of outer space. Houston built the first domed stadium. Houston was able to outbid LA for Nolan Ryan. If it really wants to, Houston can figure out a way to keep Carlos Correa.
