Astros ponder re-signing Correa, while grooming his replacement

LLANO, Texas — For the Houston Astros, the coming October represents their last best chance to win a world championship with the core players who won that tainted version of one in 2017.  

Discussions within the organization go something like this: “Our farm system is close to being used up.  Our best pitching prospect, Forrest Whitley, ruined his mechanics, had Tommy John surgery and won’t be useful until late next season, if then.  Carlos Correa, our best postseason player, is heading into free agency, and negotiations are going nowhere.”

I’ve long contended that losing Correa, a shortstop who hits bombs and throws 97 mph, accurately, would be devastating.  It could be a misstep as colossal as losing Hall of Famers Joe Morgan and Nolan Ryan in previous eras.  In the past, the Astros hid behind the shield of being small-market, but Houston is now neck and neck with Chicago as the country’s third-largest city.  Jim Crane has a payroll of just under $200 million – fourth-highest in baseball, behind the LA Dodgers and the two New York clubs.  

I’m hoping he digs deeply for Correa, but I can see that the organization is fast-tracking 23-year-old shortstop Jeremy Pena.  The former University of Maine player was in A-ball last season but skipped double-A to play this year for the AAA Sugar Land Skeeters.  

A third-round draft choice in 2018, Pena is hitting .310, slugging .521.  He lacks Correa power, but scouts say he has Gold Glove potential.  Crane will be tempted to forego paying Correa $22 million (Francisco Lindor money).  It could take much more than that because one team that feels short at shortstop is the New York Yankees. 

Correa, who was born in Ponce, Puerto Rico, has grown some roots in Houston – he married a former Miss Texas.  But the Bronx, with a population that’s 21% Puerto Rican, could be culturally luring.   Then again, the Yankees might be leery of any connection to the Astros’ 2017 sign-stealing caper.  New York baseball writers say bitterness lingers in the Yankees’ clubhouse; they feel like the Astros cheated them out of a World Series.  

But if not the Yankees there will be other teams willing to forgive the Astros’ transgressions and Correa’s propensity for injuries.  In 2017-2019 he missed a third of his team’s games.  But since then he’s developed a new training regimen and has been healthy for two years.

There’s been discussion about Alex Bregman shifting from third base to short, where he played brilliantly at LSU.  But the prevailing opinion is that Bregman has added so much muscle to his 6-foot frame that he lacks the agility for shortstop.

The Astros probably can win their division next year with Pena supplanting Correa, but a world championship would be unlikely given the limitations of the pitching staff.  They need to win this year, before the contract expires on Zack Greinke, their opening-day starter.

They need to win while they still have Correa, who’s had a procession of big-moment postseason home runs.  They need to win while the opposition, at least in the American League, is unusually soft, with down years for the Yankees and Red Sox.  Tampa Bay has the AL’s best record but only one starting pitcher – rookie Shane McClanahan – with an ERA under 4.70.  And the Rays’ gaudy record is padded by their 18-1 against borderline big-league Baltimore.  

The White Sox play in a division where every other team is a loser.  Even so, they’re only .500 for September.  On paper, the Toronto Blue Jays are the AL’s best, but they’re a young team with little postseason experience, and their bullpen is wobbly.  

Inexorably, the world-champion Dodgers are re-emerging as the best team in baseball.  Key development for them is Clayton Kershaw returning after missing 2 ½ months with an elbow injury.  He pitched 5 innings against Cincinnati on Sunday and allowed just 1 run and 3 hits, striking out 8.  He’s their No. 4 starter behind Max Scherzer (15-4), Walker Buehler (14-4) and Julio Urias (18-3).

So we could end up with what we’ve wanted and we’ve dreaded: a 2017 World Series rematch between the Astros and Dodgers.