Breakout Fantasy Stars for 2017, and five overvalued picks

Fantasy Sleepers

Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints WR

Michael Thomas in his rookie year in 2016 amassed 1,167 receiving yards and 9 TDs over 15 games. Those numbers, and the fact that he is now the number one receiver in New Orleans with Brandin Cooks moving to New England, has him ranked as the 8th wide receiver in this year’s pre-season ranks.

I believe Thomas has more raw talent than any other wide receiver Drew Brees has had the privilege of playing with. He has elite wide receiver upside and is currently being taken 16th overall in most drafts. I have Thomas finishing top-4 at his position this season provided Brees stays healthy.

 

Brandin Cooks – New England Patriots WR

I would be remiss if I did not add the aforementioned Brandin Cooks to this list. Finally, Brady has another elite weapon on the outside (the first time since Randy Moss graced New England with his presence).

With Rob Gronkowski’s propensity for injury and Martellus Bennett’s departure to Green Bay, I believe Cooks will see his fair share of targets. His speed and Brady’s accuracy with the football will make for a deadly combination this year. Cooks is a steal in the third round with top-6 upside at his position. He is currently being drafted as the 13th receiver off the board.

 

Isaiah Crowell – Cleveland Browns RB

If you’ve been paying attention this offseason, you have certainly heard the buzz coming out of Cleveland over Crowell’s potential usage in 2017. Crowell managed 952 yards on less than 200 carries last season, rushing for 4.8 yards per carry.

Cleveland head coach Hue Jackson noted earlier this offseason that the Browns needed to utilize Crowell and the running game more in 2016.

I have Crowell finishing the season inside the top-10 running backs with something near a 1,300/10/240 stat line.

 

Alshon Jeffery and Terrelle Pryor – Philadelphia Eagles/Washington Redskins WRs

Both of these number one receivers found new homes this offseason. Their upside is very similar and they are being drafted in the fourth round, each with WR1 upside.

4a. Alshon Jeffery comes to Philadelphia after a mediocre season with Chicago in which he managed 882 yards in 12 games, battling injury once again. In the two seasons he has played 16 games Jeffery managed over 1,100 yards and 6 TDs. Now he is the focal receiver for red hot Carson Wentz, who completed over 60% of his passes last season. I like Wentz to stay hot and Jeffery to have a strong season.

4b. Terrelle Pryor moved from the cesspool (quarterback situation) that is Cleveland and into deep ball heaven, with Kirk Cousins as his leading man. Cousins loves to throw the bomb, and the Redskins’ running game is in shambles. This could be Pryor’s chance to shine, and emerge from this season as a top-shelf wide receiver.

 

Marcus Mariota – Tennessee Titans QB

Mariota showed us in 2016 that he has what it takes to be an elite quarterback. Prior to his injury, he was among the top fantasy plays at his position last season.

Now, with added talent, Mariota has a chance to be over-the-top in 2017. Tennessee drafted Corey Davis, a Western Michigan product, in the first round of the 2017 draft. Considered to be an elite talent, Davis will be the Titan’s starting X receiver this season.

My favorite edition to the Tennessee offense this season was Eric Decker. When healthy, Decker has a nose for the end zone, and all reports indicate he is back to full strength.

With all the talent in the world and weapons like Rishard Matthews, Delanie Walker, Eric Decker and Corey Davis around, there is no reason why Mariota cannot be a top-5 fantasy quarterback this season.

 

 

Fantasy delusions

LeSean McCoy, Buffalo Bills

ESPN’s board of Fantasy experts ranks him No. 7 overall, too high for a running back who’s 29 years old. He scored 13 TD’s last year, but he’s unlikely to get 234 carries this season, with the Bills’ defense in decline. This will not be a ball control team but will be fighting from behind, out of the shotgun.

 

Jordy Nelson, Green Bay Packers

Ranked 9th by ESPN, he’s losing speed at 32. As Aaron Rodgers’ favorite receiver, he scored 14 TDs last season but averaged a pedestrian 13.0 yards per catch. Look for his role to diminish as the younger and improving Davante Adams draws more action.

 

DeMarco Murray, Tennessee Titans

ESPN’s 15th choice is a 29-year-old running back who can expect a lesser role than he enjoyed in 2016, when he carried 293 times and led the AFC in rushing. He could be the Titans’ No. 2 back this season, as Derrick Henry, last year’s rookie and former Heisman Trophy winner, is ascending.

 

Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals

This is a talented rookie, and ESPN ranks him 51st overall and 20th among running backs. But he likely will begin the season as third string, behind Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard. Of more concern is the Bengals’ offensive line, which loses its two Pro Bowlers, Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler. This could be the worst O-line in the league, and Mixon will struggle along with anyone else who runs or passes for Cincinnati.

 

Frank Gore, Indianapolis Colts

A remarkable competitor, one of the league’s most reliable backs for a dozen years. He’s 59th in the ESPN rankings. But he’s 34, truly ancient for his position. The Colts drafted South Florida’s Marlon Mack in the fourth round to take carries from Gore. And there’s also Robert Turbin, who scored 7 TDs last year for Indy and will see increasing red-zone duty. Gore is not a standout receiver. He’s a fine pass protector but gets no Fantasy points for that. A better choice for Fantasy leagues would be Eddie Lacy, ranked 62nd by ESPN.

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