Davis Mills outduels Justin Herbert and could be another Mac Jones
LLANO, Texas — As usual, the Quarterback Carousel is spinning in the NFL. But some teams that were looking for change are reconsidering. The Miami Dolphins are warming to Tua Tagovailoa after he’s led them to six consecutive victories. Likewise, the Philadelphia Eagles are thinking they should give Jalen Hurts more time to develop rather than spend one of their first-round draft picks on a quarterback in a year when there are no obvious standouts.
This was supposed to be a year for rookie standouts, but the first four QBs in the 2021 draft have disappointed: Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields. The best-performing QB from the first round of that draft is Mac Jones, who went to New England. But he looked like a confused rookie in Sunday’s 33-21 loss to Buffalo. He was 14-for-32, 145 yards, 2 interceptions, 0 touchdowns.
I prefer the Houston Texans’ third-rounder, Davis Mills. Against an LA Chargers team contending for the playoffs, he completed 21 of 27 passes Sunday, for 254 yards, 2 TDs, 0 interceptions, 130.6 passer rating. And despite playing behind one of the worst O-lines ever assembled, he was sacked just once while leading a 41-29 upset. Compare that to Justin Herbert, last year’s Rookie of the Year, who threw two picks and had a 92.1 passer rating for the 12-point-favored Chargers.
Mills was a sleeper in the last draft because he played in the Pac-12 so ravaged by Covid in 2020 that it barely played at all.
He made a total of 11 starts in his four years at Stanford. He was so unknown that Tony Kornheiser of ESPN said his name “sounds like a shopping mall in Ohio.” At any rate, Mills was woefully unprepared for the NFL. In the preseason he showed no ability to recognize a blitz. Which is why his recent development is so noteworthy. His ratio of TDs to INTs is 7/2 for his past five games.
The obvious comparable is Mac Jones, 6-3, 214 pounds, while Mills is 6-4, 225. They even look alike, with blond hair, blue eyes. They’re both accurate midrange throwers, Jones completing 67.2% for the season, Mills 66.6 with a much lesser team. They don’t run well, and their arm strength is limited, but Mills had completions of 41 and 36 yards against the Chargers. His arm is strong enough.
Mills has been in and out of the starting lineup, and Texans offensive coordinator Tim Kelly said, “He’s done a really good job since coming back of playing more confidently. He’s more comfortable in being able to function within the offense.”
This says much about Mills, because I can’t see how anyone can be comfortable in that offense. The Texans have only one credible receiver, Brandin Cooks, and he’s injured. They have one credible lineman, Laremy Tunsil, and he’s injured, along with the other four who were supposed to start. They had one credible running back, Mark Ingram, so they traded him.
There’s also debate about Kelly’s play-calling. It was hardly a vote of confidence when head coach David Culley said recently, “We aren’t always making the right calls.”
Not that Culley’s endorsement is critical, given his tenuous status. It’s an indictment of a head coach if he can’t get along with his star players. Culley recently suspended safety Justin Reid and linebacker Zach Cunningham because of disciplinary issues.
Subsequently, general manager Nick Caserio traded Cunningham to Tennessee, where he’s likely to have a playoff run he could not have had in Houston.
Culley is 66 and has a solid resume of assisting some of the sport’s most respected coaches: Bill Cowher, Andy Reid, John Harbaugh, Sean McDermott. No doubt he knows his X’s and O’s.
But with Culley I sense lack of assertiveness. There’s a reason he hasn’t been a head coach before, besides his being Black. He’s not a charismatic leader, someone who can rally a team by force of personality, the way Mike Vrabel does in Tennessee or Mike Tomlin in Pittsburgh or Bruce Arians in Tampa. Apparently Culley is someone players can take advantage of.
So he will be one-and-done in Houston.
Caserio, who built championship rosters in New England, saw Culley as a caretaker whose tranquil personality is perfect for an organization filled with turmoil.
Franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson couldn’t stand the owner, Cal McNair, who has acquired the unfortunate nickname of Hee Haw, and you can guess why. McNair wants to trade Watson, but that’s difficult to do with the quarterback and his lawyer contending with 20 allegations of sexual misbehavior.
It would have been impossible to hire a first-rate coach for this season, given the organizational chaos. But 2022 holds promise, with a high first-round pick as a reward for a slick tanking operation that’s produced a 4-11 record without thoroughly alienating the fan base. No doubt they could have won a couple more if they’d tried.
And of course there’s the expected haul of draft capital when the Dolphins, Broncos, Panthers and perhaps Browns and Eagles end their bidding for the ultratalented but ultratroubled Watson. My feeling is good riddance. Let’s roll with Davis Mills.
