Moncada, Voit, Bogaerts, Muncy among Baseball’s All-Star Snubs
Updated Wednesday, July 3, 2019
Whenever an All-Star team is revealed — for any sport – there follows a wave of lamentations about those who were “snubbed.”
Perhaps the most celebrated case of injustice this summer is Xander Bogaerts, shortstop of the Boston Red Sox who leads the American League in doubles and ranks high in most other meaningful stats. Granted, he faced stout competition at his position: Minnesota’s Jorge Polanco (3.9 Wins Above Replacement and Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor (2.3 WAR, magical in the field).
Inevitably, some stars are honored more on reputation than for what they’ve done lately, but this year the fans paid attention. Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are having non-All-Star years, and appropriately, they’re omitted from the elite rosters.
Boston outfielder Mookie Betts slipped from his MVP pedestal, but the players voted him into the game as a backup, and he’s plenty worthy of that semi-honor. A bit sheepishly he said, “There are other guys on our team who are very deserving.” He cited Bogaerts as well as third baseman Rafael Devers. “Those people have carried us all season, in my opinion.”
Yes, they’ve carried the world champions to third place in the AL East. Let’s be sure they get all the credit they deserve.
Though Betts does have a valid point. In the all-important WAR, Bogaerts is 3.0, Devers 2.9, Betts 2.9.
Bogaerts has been added to the All-Star roster as an injury replacement, but Devers is still waiting.
Boston’s designated hitter J.D. Martinez is 1.8 in WAR, perhaps slightly more deserving than the Yankees’ Luke Voit, 1.7 and drawing much snub outrage on twitter. Indeed, Voit seems better than Chicago’s Jose Abreu, who makes the squad at DH with a mere 0.8 WAR.
Some players are on the All-Star team because each club must have a delegate, though that rule did not boost Abreu, whose team has two other deserving All-Stars, 11-game winner Lucas Giolito and catcher James McCann, who’s nicknamed “Cannon” for a reason.
Josh Bell of the slumbering Pittsburgh Pirates has an OPS of 1.001. Very commendable, but other National Leaguers with bigger analytics are left at home so Bell can be the NL’s third-string first baseman. Can’t have enough of those.
Among those who probably won’t be playing in Cleveland on July 9 is the Dodgers’ Max Muncy, who ranks sixth in FanGraph’s WAR — 3.5 to 2.7 for Bell. The league’s players, whose votes determine the backups, apparently did not award Muncy extra points for playing second base as well as first.
Nor did they seem to care that Muncy is a repeat All-Star Snub.
Tommy Pham, 31-year-old outfielder for the Tampa Bay Rays, was unhappy about lagging in fan vote, which is what determines the starting lineups. He blamed the oversight on being in a small market and having minimal television exposure.
In an interview with The Athletic, Pham proposed reforms that he intends to present to the Players Association. He pointed out that as he’s heading into arbitration, All-Star status is a factor in awarding salary.
“The All-Stars, position player-wise, should be calculated off the percentage of games played,” Pham said. “Plus wRC+ and WAR.” Showing his mastery of baseball analytics, he argued that “wRC+” (weighted Runs Created) is “an important stat offensively that neutralizes park factors; WAR is your overall contributions.”
Not to try to out-nerd Tommy Pham, but I think Percentage of Games Played is redundant here, since WAR takes care of that. It’s designed to produce Wins Above Replacement over the course of a season, so the number increases as the season advances. This stat has been around since the 1960s but few ballfans obsessed over it until a decade ago.
I’m completely lost when it comes to weighted Runs Created, but I believe in WAR. And I do see Pham’s side.
He currently ranks 54th among all big-league players in WAR, at 2.6. He’s in the wrong league. In the National, he would have a strong case against David Dahl, with his 1.7, and that’s with a boost from Rocky Mountain altitude.
Not to pile onto Dahl, but the Washington Nationals’ Juan Soto matches him at WAR and is battling at sea level. This left fielder is not drawing the buzz he deserves. Not to worry, he’s 20 years old, a future filled with All-Star games and the next-best thing – though distant — All-Star Snub.
Another prominent snub is Yoan Moncada, 24, of the Chicago White Sox. He has shifted from second base to third, where he’s fielded better. As a backup infielder he provides a stronger bat, with his 2.5 WAR, than Tommy La Stella, who was chosen as second-string second baseman. Among those campaigning for Moncada is his perhaps overrated teammate Abreu.
La Stella is the feelgood story of the half-year. Utilityman, pinch hitter supreme, traded in the offseason to the Angels for a player to be named. At age 30 he developed unexpected power – more home runs already than he accumulated in five previous years. He’s outhomered Moncada 16-14. But Moncada leads in doubles, 16-7, and triples, 3-0. Could be the ballplayers when voting gave in to sentiment. As fans are so often accused of doing.
Alas, La Stella will miss the Midsummer Classic because of a foul ball fracturing a tibia on Tuesday. Even so, Moncada wasn’t called to replace him. Instead, Tampa Bay’s Brandon Lowe was selected. Lowe is playing like an All-Star, with his 2.7 WAR. But he is just a rookie. Is it too early to anoint him after a hot three months?
No sooner was he appointed to the team than Lowe was seem limping down the first-base line and saying he wasn’t sure he’d be able to play a week later. Perhaps Moncada still has a chance.
